A pat on the back for Connecticut: Sixty percent of those 16 and older have received at least the first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine. We’re leading the country — go, nutmeggers!
But we still haven’t reached the coveted stage of herd immunity, and there’s a long way to go.
Why herd immunity is the goal
Experts theorize that with no restrictions in place, someone infected with the original strain of Covid-19 will infect about three to four other people. Therefore, once two-thirds of the population becomes immune to the virus, an infected person will only pass it to one other person on average. That's enough for the virus to spread, but not enough for it to grow — meaning we will have reached herd immunity.
However, it may not be that simple. The vaccines are not 100% effective, and even when they stop people from getting sick, they don't completely block infections in everyone. Thus, even some vaccinated people might be able to pass on the virus.
There’s also concern that new variants of Covid-19 may spread at a greater rate because the vaccines will be less effective against them. That’s why it’s not only a goal to get the most amount of people vaccinated, but to do it as quickly as possible.
What number are we aiming for to reach herd immunity?
With all these factors in play, there’s not an agreed upon vaccination rate we need to reach to be confident we’ve defeated the mass spread of Covid. As mentioned, some experts say about two-thirds. However, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and chief medical adviser to Pres. Joe Biden, thinks it’s much higher.
“Let’s say we get 75 percent, 80 percent of the population vaccinated,” Fauci says. “If we do that, if we do it efficiently enough over the second quarter of 2021, by the time we get to the end of the summer, i.e., the third quarter, we may actually have enough herd immunity protecting our society that as we get to the end of 2021, we can approach very much some degree of normality that is close to where we were before.”
Connecticut’s place in this
While Connecticut may currently be leading the way, Gov. Ned Lamont says the state’s vaccine supply is now outpacing demand. Like climbing a mountain, vaccinanting that last 15 to 20% of the state’s eligible residents is going to be the steepest part before reaching the pinnacle.
There’s also the fact that Connecticut is not isolated, and we’re going to be dependent on the rest of the country, and the world, to vaccinate in order to stop new variants from forming. As of this writing, the U.S. vaccination rate is sitting under 30%.
Still, reaching herd immunity in the state will allow us to locally start the process of normalcy, which could be as early as the summer. Perhaps our example will offer inspiration to others of what is possible.
So let’s keep climbing, not look down, and celebrate at the top together.